Course Description
Leaders of governments are often required to make decisions under conditions that are time-constrained, stressful, and in which the stakes are very high. Think of the Cuban Missile Crisis, in which decisions needed to be made quickly in a context that risked nuclear war, the United States after 9/11, Ukraine and Russia, or Israel after October 7, 2023.
Psychological research tells us that rather than behaving as rational actors, individual and collective history and memory influence leaders' decisions in such circumstances. First, personal and collective history and memory contribute to leaders' personalities and traits. Second, history and memory have a direct influence through their use in analogical reasoning the inference that the current crisis is similar to a previous crisis. They help leaders to diagnose the seriousness of what is at stake, and seem to offer clues as to the effective (and ineffective) courses of action. Third, prospect theory says that history and memory affect how leaders frame situations in terms of gains and losses, leading them to be risk averse or risk acceptant.
But cognitive psychology also tells us that these memories and "lessons of history" are often used poorly by leaders because they are swayed by the superficial similarities between one situation and another, or take risks to get back to a historical status quo that is unreachable. Indeed, the poor use of history often leads leaders to make suboptimal decisions.
This course will begin in the first eight weeks by looking at the psychology of elite decision-making in terms of the influence of history and memory on the development of leaders personalities and traits, in analogical reasoning, and according to prospect theory. The course will then consider other psychological perspectives.on elite decision-making that regard history and memory as less influential, including groupthink, in which the emphasis is on the structural flaws of groups and the perils of concurrence-seeking, and poliheuristic theory, in which political considerations are said to eliminate consideration of some options entirely, with leaders then deciding rationally between the options that remain. Finally, we will ask whether (and how) these different perspectives on elite decision-making can be combined, and how we might ensure that leaders use history and memory more productively in decision-making.
The course will draw on several different leaders, cases and historical examples from the 20th and 21 centuries around the world. The course will include a field trip to Venice's Military Museum.

Teaching Assessment
This course will be assessed by a combination of:
Class participation (20%): asking questions (in-class or by email before class), answering questions in class, discussing readings.
Presentations (10 minutes + 5 minutes Q&A) (40%): Students will be given the opportunity to choose a leader and a decision that interests them. They will prepare a presentation that evaluates the leader and decision in terms of the theories we examine.
Final exam of 1.5 hours (40%): consisting of multiple-choice questions and two essay questions requiring knowledge of the material in the course.

Bibliography/Recommended Reading
Students will read approximately 30 pages a week before class from books and academic journals. Readings and discussion will bear in mind that English will not be the first language of some students.

Examples include:
Brown, Lauren, Laszlo Horvath, and Daniel Stevens. 2021. "Moonshots or a Cautious Take-off? How the Big 5 Leadership Traits Predict Covid-19 Policy Response." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties S1: 335-347.
Kertzer, Joshua, and Dustin Tingley. 2018. "Political Psychology in International Relations: Beyond the Paradigms." Annual Review of Political Science 21: 1-23.
Khong, Yuen Foong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
McDermott, Rose. 2004. Political Psychology in International Relations. Michigan: University of Michigan Press.

Last updated: January 29, 2025